13 December 2017

According the latest IBL Super Index, Italy is the sick man of Europe. Despite relatively rosy macroeconomic projections for the whole EU, the gap between Italy and its European partners has increased five fold since 2014.
As Italy moves towards the next General Election, which is likely to occur in March 2018, the country is stuck in an economic limbo. In fact, whilst countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain have undergone deep structural reforms over the last few years, Italy has not been able to capitalise on the work done by Mr. Monti and Mr. Letta in the period 2011-2014.

In light of this, it is reasonable to think that the biennium 2018-2019 could be, (once again) a period of macroeconomic adjustment for Rome. As the Super Index suggests, this is an event that appears not only possible but rather probable. In the meantime, Italy’s economic performance remains poor and Italian largest political parties are all ready to campaign for less fiscal responsibility.